The Rake Tax: Why Most Club Cash Players Aren't Actually Winning (and what to do about it)

If your pre-rake winrate isn’t comfortably double digits in bb/100, you’re probably losing in a standard club game. That’s not a vibe check, it’s the math.

Assumptions for the numbers below: 1/2 NL, 9-handed, $200 effective. Rake is 10% capped at $6 plus a $1 promo drop ($7 max), taken when a flop is dealt. If your room is different, swap in your numbers.

The rake doesn’t care about your edge

Rake raises the breakeven line for your entire game, not just your bluffs.

Numeric example A (required winrate shift):

• You win 6 pots per 100 hands that hit the $7 rake cap (any pot $60+).
• Rake paid on those wins: 6 x $7 = $42 = 21 bb/100.
• If you’re a +10 bb/100 player pre-rake, you’re actually -11 bb/100 after rake.
• You now need +21 bb/100 pre-rake just to break even.

Numeric example B (required winrate shift):

• You win 9 capped pots per 100 hands.
• Rake paid: 9 x $7 = $63 = 31.5 bb/100.
• A solid-looking +18 bb/100 pre-rake becomes -13.5 bb/100 after rake.
• You need +31.5 bb/100 pre-rake just to reach zero.

If those numbers feel brutal, that’s the point. You’re not beating the table; you’re beating the table and the drop.

Small pots are rake traps

Your thin edges die in small pots because the rake is a massive percentage.

Hand sketch (thin value gets taxed to death)

• Game: 1/2 NL, 9-handed, $200 effective.
• CO opens to $7 with 8c8d, BB calls. Pot $17.
• Flop: Ks 7s 2d. CO bets $11, BB calls. Pot $39.
• Turn: 4s. CO checks, BB checks.
• River: 2h. Pot $39. CO considers a thin $12 value bet.

If CO bets $12 and gets called, final pot is $63 and rake is $7, so CO wins $56 when good. You’re risking $12 to win $44 net. Against a typical club BB range that calls rivers with Kx and flushes, that thin value bet gets punished by the tax. Default to checking back marginal value in small pots unless you can name the worse hands that will pay.

Alternate line: If BB is a known station who peels any pair, the thin value bet can be +EV. That’s a read-based exception, not the baseline.

Multiway flats bleed rake

When a pot goes multiway, your equity gets split while the rake stays the same — so your marginal flats are the first thing to cut.

Hand sketch (flatting turns AJs into a rake pit)

• Game: 1/2 NL, 9-handed, $200 effective.
• HJ opens to $7. CO (loose) calls. You are on the BTN with AJs.
• You flat, going three-way to a $24 pot.
• Flop: Jd 8s 4c. HJ bets $15, CO calls.

You’re facing a spot where you’re rarely crushed but often outkicked or up against a draw, and the pot is already paying a meaningful rake. If you continue, you need a real reason, not just “top pair is usually good.” Default to 3-bet to isolate or fold; don’t donate rake by flatting into multiway.

Rake-aware playbook (use tonight)

Play fewer, bigger pots and stop paying tax on marginal edges.

• 3-bet or fold versus opens likely to go multiway; isolate the weakest player or get out.
• No thin river value without a clear worse-calling range; check back more.
• Bluff less in small pots, especially in multiway lines where fold equity is thin.
• Size value bets to hit the cap quickly; once the cap is reached, the tax stops scaling.
• Avoid limp-call chains unless you are deep and the table is full of stations.
• Track your true winrate after rake; if you don’t know it, you’re guessing.

If you want more of this blunt, math-first approach and real hand breakdowns, the Telegram is where it lives: https://t.me/thebadgerdenbot?start=content_rake-tax